A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
